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Currently: Partly Sunny W/ T-Storms: 84F
Currently in Georgetown, BS: 84 °F and Partly Sunny W/ T-Storms

9/2/2014 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 79 F Mostly sunny with a t-storm

9/3/2014 Forecast
High: 87 F Low: 80 F A brief shower or two

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014


000
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.

With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:45 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)

...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.0, -97.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014


000
FONT15 KNHC 022044
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
LA PESCA MX    34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34 45  14(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
TAMPICO MX     50  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TUXPAN MX      34 26   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014


000
WTNT35 KNHC 022044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST.  DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN


Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics

Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 20:44:02 GMT

Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 20:43:48 GMT

Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:44 pm

Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014


000
WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  97.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  97.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  96.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Posted on 2 September 2014 | 3:43 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 021743
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west Africa
late Thursday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Terry

Posted on 2 September 2014 | 12:43 pm

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