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Currently: Mostly Clear: 84F
Currently in Georgetown, BS: 84 °F and Mostly Clear

8/1/2014 Forecast
High: 85 F Low: 79 F Brief showers

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High: 86 F Low: 79 F Clouds and sun, a t-shower

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at 1146 PM AST JUEVES 31 DE JULIO DE 2014

Posted on 31 July 2014 | 11:22 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014


000
WTNT43 KNHC 010321
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier
this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low
pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had
surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center.
Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has
developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center,
and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along
the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the
north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA
Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward
motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha
is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion
of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly
north of the consensus model, TVCA.

The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable
for significant strengthening during the next two days due
to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,
the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight
strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone
clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the
SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less
than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 12.3N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Posted on 31 July 2014 | 10:21 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics

Tropical Storm BERTHA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 03:01:22 GMT

Tropical Storm BERTHA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 03:05:46 GMT

Posted on 31 July 2014 | 10:10 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014


000
FONT13 KNHC 010300
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   1(18)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   1(22)   1(23)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   1(26)   X(26)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  37(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

AVES           34  X   1( 1)  54(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
AVES           50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DOMINICA       34  X  29(29)  12(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DOMINICA       50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MARTINIQUE     34  X  53(53)   4(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X  30(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BARBADOS       34  1  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Posted on 31 July 2014 | 10:00 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 31 the center of BERTHA was located near 12.3, -55.5 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Posted on 31 July 2014 | 9:59 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014


000
WTNT33 KNHC 010259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY
EVENING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Posted on 31 July 2014 | 9:59 pm

Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014


000
WTNT23 KNHC 010257
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  55.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Posted on 31 July 2014 | 9:57 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 31 July 2014 | 6:42 pm

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