Exuma Weather
Average Weather Information
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° |
| 78 | 78 | 80 | 82 | 85 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 88 | 86 | 82 | 79 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° |
| 62 | 63 | 64 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 68 | 64 |
| Average Sea Temp - F° |
| 77 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 80 | 82 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 83 | 81 | 78 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches |
| 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Number of Rain Days |
| 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6 |
Currently: Cloudy: 80F
Currently in Georgetown, BS: 80 °F and Cloudy
9/21/2019 Forecast
High: 82 F Low: 80 F A shower and t-storm around 
9/22/2019 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 80 F Couple of thunderstorms 
Georgetown - Exuma Bahamas Extended Weather Forecast
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NASA's Hurricane Resource Page
Arrivals and Departures for Exuma Int'l Airport (MYEF)
Great Exuma Bahamas Tide Tables - Tides & Charts
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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:24:49 GMT
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:56 am
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
000
WTNT45 KNHC 210855
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.
Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday,
followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer
trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone
northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains
excellent agreement among the track models on this developing
scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.
Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the
next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear
affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.
Key Messages:
1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:55 am
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 210854
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 55(73) 3(76)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0
with movement NW at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
000
WTNT35 KNHC 210854
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019
...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve
over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches,
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
000
WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 63.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 64.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:53 am
000
ABNT20 KNHC 210558
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles
north of the northern Leeward Islands.
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues
to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to
strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is
not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the
next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba
through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 21 September 2019 | 12:58 am
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