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Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
787880828587888988868279
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
626364667073757574726864
Average Sea Temp - F°
777776788082848484838178
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
1.41.10.91.55.26.03.13.94.76.62.71.9
Number of Rain Days
766711111213131286

Currently: Intermittent Clouds: 83F
Currently in Georgetown, BS: 83 °F and Intermittent Clouds

10/19/2019 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 80 F A thunderstorm in spots

10/20/2019 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 81 F Partly sunny

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 192301
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor, located inland over the southeast U.S.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 6:01 pm

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 509 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 /409 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 4:09 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019


000
WTNT21 KNHC 192059 CCA
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  84.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......210NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  84.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.3N  81.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N  76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.8N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.5N  65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N  84.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON NESTOR.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Posted on 19 October 2019 | 4:00 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:42:36 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 21:24:38 GMT

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 3:42 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019


000
WTNT41 KNHC 192041
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday,  mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 30.4N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0600Z 32.3N  81.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 35.0N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 36.8N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 36.8N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z 36.5N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 3:41 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019


000
FONT11 KNHC 192041
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  11(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  26(26)   5(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  44(44)  15(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X  31(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X  61(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X  56(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  60(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X  66(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X  68(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  64(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 23  29(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34 27   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  5  67(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 15  59(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 32  41(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 66  11(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
CHARLESTON SC  50  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34 27   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
SAVANNAH GA    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 3:41 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019


000
WTNT31 KNHC 192041
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast
of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North,
longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions
of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is
expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the
western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and
Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km),
east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia
coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h)

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce
additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend
across portions of the southeastern United States.

WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight.

TORNADOES:  A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida
Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with
a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the
coastal Carolinas.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through
tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Nestor.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 3:41 pm

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (AT1/AL162019)

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 30.4, -84.1 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 3:41 pm

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Posted on 19 October 2019 | 1:30 pm

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