Exuma Bahamas

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Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
787880828587888988868279
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
626364667073757574726864
Average Sea Temp - F°
777776788082848484838178
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
1.41.10.91.55.26.03.13.94.76.62.71.9
Number of Rain Days
766711111213131286

Currently: Mostly Clear: 83F
Currently in Georgetown, BS: 83 °F and Mostly Clear

9/21/2021 Forecast
High: 88 F Low: 81 F A t-storm around in the p.m.

9/22/2021 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 79 F Sunshine with a stray t-storm

Georgetown - Exuma Bahamas Extended Weather Forecast

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Eleuthera Weather Forecast

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

Real Time GOES Imagery - Definitive Weather Satellite Views of the Bahamas and Caribbean:

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GOES-East Image Viewer

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Arrivals and Departures for Exuma Int'l Airport (MYEF)

Great Exuma Bahamas Tide Tables - Tides & Charts

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

Tropical Storm Peter 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:51:05 GMT

Tropical Storm Peter 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 03:22:38 GMT

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:51 pm

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021


000
WTNT41 KNHC 210250
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
Peter has proven to be a resilient tropical cyclone, despite strong 
upper-level wind shear that continues to displace its deep 
convection well east of its now exposed low-level center. Data from 
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter 
tonight, as well as recent scatterometer data, indicate that the 
cyclone has maintained its tropical storm intensity. An ASCAT-A pass 
shows several 40-kt wind vectors, with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending outward up to 150 n mi from the center in the northeastern 
quadrant. The aircraft has found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 
47 kt and SFMR winds of around 35 kt, although it did not sample the 
area where ASCAT depicted the strongest winds. The initial intensity 
is held at a possibly generous 45 kt for this advisory based on the 
scatterometer data.
 
An upper-level trough to the northwest of Peter should maintain 20 
to 30 kt of vertical wind shear over the cyclone for the next 2-3 
days. Thus, intensification seems unlikely during this period, 
despite 29 deg C SSTs along Peter's forecast track. If the tropical 
cyclone can endure these hostile upper-level winds, it could survive 
through the entire forecast period, although the drier mid-level 
environment at higher latitudes will also work against Peter later 
this week. However, an alternative scenario that has been favored by 
the GFS is that Peter weakens sooner due to a lack of sustained 
convection and opens up into a trough late this week. The long-range 
forecast is further complicated by the potential development of 
another non-tropical low to the north of Peter later this week, 
which could interact with or absorb Peter. The official NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and only shows 
gradual weakening over the next several days, which is in good 
agreement with the HCCA and IVDR consensus aids.
 
Data from the aircraft indicate that the center has moved westward 
and slowed down a bit over the past several hours, and Peter's 
initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. Peter is expected 
to continue moving generally west-northwestward through Tuesday, as 
it is steered around the southern extent of a low- to mid-level 
ridge over the central and western Atlantic. By Wednesday, a 
mid-level cutoff low is forecast to develop to the north of Peter 
over the western Atlantic, which will induce a weakness in the 
steering ridge. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and 
turn northward and then north-northeastward through the latter part 
of the week and into the weekend. There are some larger along-track 
differences noted in the guidance at days 4-5, with the ECMWF moving 
or re-forming the center much farther north than the rest of the 
track guidance. The official NHC track forecast is shifted slightly 
to the right at 48 h and beyond, based on the latest TVCA and HCCA 
consensus aids. At longer ranges, the forecast is of much lower 
confidence and trends a bit slower than the consensus aids, which 
are heavily influenced by the outlying ECMWF solution.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday
across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 19.8N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 20.4N  64.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 21.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 22.3N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 23.2N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 24.0N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 25.1N  67.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 27.5N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 30.5N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:50 pm

Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021


000
WTNT31 KNHC 210247
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
...RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 62.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was 
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 62.8 West.  Peter is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, 
followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed 
on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday.
 
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained 
winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Slow 
weakening is forecast during the next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) 
from the center, primarily in the northeastern quadrant.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm
Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward
Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and
the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola on Tuesday and the Bahamas on Wednesday.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:47 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

...RESILIENT PETER MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.8, -62.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:47 pm

Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021


000
FONT11 KNHC 210247
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:47 pm

Tropical Storm Rose Graphics

Tropical Storm Rose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 02:46:42 GMT

Tropical Storm Rose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 03:28:36 GMT

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021


000
WTNT21 KNHC 210246
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  62.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  62.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  62.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N  64.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N  67.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N  67.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N  67.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N  67.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N  62.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021


000
WTNT42 KNHC 210245
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
Although Rose's convective pattern does not appear to be as 
organized as it was earlier today, a couple of ASCAT overpasses this 
evening indicated that the tropical cyclone has strengthened since 
this morning. Both ASCAT-A and -B instruments detected 40-45 kt 
winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, and the 
initial intensity was raised to 45 kt around 0000 UTC with the 
issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Update.  That intensity is maintained 
for this advisory, and it is also in agreement with subjective 
Dvorak data T-numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. 

The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of Rose is located to 
the west of the previous estimates, near the northwestern edge of 
the convective mass noted in satellite imagery.  As a result of the 
center re-location, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 
320/13 kt.  Although the short-term portion of the track forecast 
has been adjusted westward due to the more westward initial 
position, there has been no overall change in forecast track 
reasoning for this advisory.  Rose should continue northwestward 
around the western portion of a strong subtropical ridge during the 
next couple of days.  Beyond that time, a mid- to upper-level trough 
over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to recurve 
northward, then northeastward, and finally east-northeastward by the 
end of the forecast period.  The dynamical models are in general  
agreement on this scenario but there are some differences in how 
sharp Rose will turn, and how fast it will move northeastward late 
in the period.  The new NHC track forecast shows a somewhat sharper 
turn than the previous advisory to be closer to the latest consensus 
aids. 

Rose has likely reached its peak intensity as increasing shear and 
the entrainment of drier mid-level air are likely to cause weakening 
by this time tomorrow. Additional weakening is expected after that 
time as a further increase in shear is anticipated when Rose nears 
the aforementioned trough in 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC wind speed 
forecast is slightly stronger at 12 and 24 hours due to the higher 
initial intensity, but is unchanged after that time. Given the 
expected hostile environmental conditions, it would not be 
surprising to see Rose wither more quickly and degenerate into a 
remnant low sooner than indicated below.  That is indicated by at 
least some of the global model guidance. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 18.9N  35.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 20.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 22.2N  37.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 23.5N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 24.8N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 26.1N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 27.3N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 29.0N  38.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 30.5N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:45 pm

Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021


000
FONT12 KNHC 210245
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:45 pm

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021


000
WTNT22 KNHC 210245
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  35.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  35.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  35.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  36.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N  37.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  38.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.8N  39.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.1N  40.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.3N  40.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N  38.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N  33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  35.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:45 pm

Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021


000
WTNT32 KNHC 210245
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
 
...ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.4W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 35.4 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days.  Rose is forecast to turn north-northwestward to 
northward on Thursday. 
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds 
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in 
strength is anticipated overnight.  Gradual weakening is expected to 
begin on Tuesday, and should continue during the next couple of 
days. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 9:45 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)

...ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 18.9, -35.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 7:32 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Peter, located about 150 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to
show some signs of organization, although recent satellite wind data
indicate that the system lacks a surface circulation. Upper-level
winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located several hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland.
This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the
middle of this week as it moves slowly southeastward over warmer
waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean, before it moves
northward over cooler waters over the weekend. Additional
information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

Posted on 20 September 2021 | 6:29 pm

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